Wednesday 8 April 2015

LEGENDARY TRADER OF ALL TIME- JESSE LIVERMORE- PART I

Jesse Lauriston Livermore (July 26, 1877 – November 28, 1940), also known as the Boy Plunger  and the Great Bear of Wall Street was an American stock-trader. He was famed for making and losing several multi-million dollar fortunes and short selling during the stock market crashes in 1907 and 1929.
He started his trading career at the age of fourteen. He ran away from home with his mother's blessing to escape a life of farming his father intended for him. He then began his career by posting stock quotes at the PaineWebber brokerage in Boston. While working, he would write down certain calculations he had about future market prices, which he would check for accuracy later. A friend convinced him to put his first actual money on the market by making a bet at a bucket shop, a type of gambling establishment that took bets on stock prices but did not actually buy or sell the stock. By the age of fifteen, he had earned profits of over $1,000 (which equates to about $23,000 today). In the next several years, he continued betting at the bucket shops. He was eventually banned from most bucket shops for winning too much money from them. He then moved to New York City and devoted his energies towards trading in legitimate markets. This change would lead him to devise a new set of rules to trade the market.
During his lifetime, Livermore gained and lost several multi-million dollar fortunes. Most notably, he was worth $3 million and $100 million after the 1907 and 1929 market crashes, respectively. Adjusted for inflation, $100 million in 1929, equals about in $1.384 billion in 2014, it would be over $125 billion today if put into Dow Jones Index with dividends reinvested. He subsequently lost both fortunes. Apart from his success as a securities speculator, Livermore left traders a working philosophy for trading securities that emphasizes increasing the size of one's positions as it goes in the right direction and cutting losses quickly.
Livermore sometimes did not follow his own rules strictly. He claimed that his lack of adherence to his own rules was the main reason for his losses after making his 1907 and 1929 fortunes.The Boy Plunger first became famous after the Panic of 1907 when he sold the market short as it crashed. He noticed conditions where a lack of capital existed to buy stock. Accordingly, he predicted that there would be a sharp drop in prices when many speculators were simultaneously forced to sell by margin calls and a lack of credit. With the lack of capital, there would be no buyers in sight to absorb the sold stock, further driving down prices. After the crash and its aftermath, he was worth $3 million.
He proceeded to lose 90% of that 1907 fortune on a blown cotton trade. He violated many of his key rules; he listened to another person's advice (he preferred working alone) and added to a losing position. He continued losing money in the flat markets from 1908–1912. He was $1 million in debt and declared bankruptcy. He proceeded to regain his fortune and repay his creditors during the World War I bull market and resulting downtrend.
He owned a series of mansions around the world, each fully staffed with servants, a fleet of limousines, and a steel-hulled yacht for trips to Europe.
Livermore continued to make money in the bull markets of the 1920s. In 1929, he noticed market conditions similar to that of the 1907 market. He began shorting various stocks and adding to his positions, and they kept declining in price. When just about everyone in the markets lost money in the Wall Street crash of 1929, Livermore was worth $100 million after his short-selling profits.
On November 28, 1940, Livermore shot and killed himself in the cloakroom of the Sherry Netherland Hotel in Manhattan. The police revealed that there was a suicide note of eight small handwritten pages in Livermore's personal notebook. It was reported in the November 30 issue of the New York Tribune. The press wanted to know what it said, and the police tersely responded: “There was a leather-bound memo book found in Mr. Livermore's pocket. It was addressed to his wife.” A police spokesman read from the notebook: “My dear Nina: Can’t help it. Things have been bad with me. I am tired of fighting. Can’t carry on any longer. This is the only way out. I am unworthy of your love. I am a failure. I am truly sorry, but this is the only way out for me. Love Laurie”.
He left behind two sons Jesse Jr. and Paul. Untouchable trusts and cash assets at his death totaled over $5 million. A lifelong history of clinical depression had become the dominant factor in his final years.
After 138 years of his birth Jesse is considered as greatest stock trader of all time, though he died penniless. His life, his writings and book  Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, by Edwin Lefevre which is fictional biography of Jesse  are considered like treasure by traders even today.
I personally love this book- Reminiscences of a stock operator. It is one of the best thing available on trading psychology and every trader should read it whether he is novice or an expert.     

To be continued..

RULES YOU SHOULD FOLLOW IF YOU WANT TO BE A SUCCESSFUL TRADER-PART II

Hie All, this is continuation of the article
 RULES YOU SHOULD FOLLOW IF YOU WANT TO BE A SUCCESSFUL TRADER-PART I

9) PERSONAL LIFE- Whatever is wrong in your life will eventually carry over into your trading performance. This is especially dangerous if you haven’t made peace with money, wealth and the magnetic polarity of abundance and scarcity.Get your personal life in order.

10) DON'T TRY TO GET EVEN- Drawdowns are a natural part of the trader’s life cycle. Accept them gracefully and stick to the time-tested strategies you know will eventually get your performance back on track.

11) EARLY WARNING SIGNS- Big losses rarely occur without multiple technical warnings. Traders routinely ignore those signals and allow hope to replace thoughtful discipline, setting themselves up for pain. Pay attention to those warning signs.

12) FINANCIAL HEROES- It’s natural for traders to emulate their financial heroes but it’s also a perfect way to lose money. Learn what you can from others, then back off and establish your own market identity, based on your unique skills and risk tolerance.Nobody can be YOU, better than yourself.

13) THERE IS NO HOLY GRAIL- Losing traders fantasize about secret formula that will magically improve their results. In reality, there are no secrets because the road to success always passes through careful choice, effective risk management and skilled profit taking.

14) DON'T COUNT YOUR CHICKENS-  Its good to feel good about a trade that’s going your way but the money isn’t yours until you close out. Lock in what you can as early as you can, with trailing or partial profits, so hidden hands cant pickpocket your success at the last minute.

15) KISS- Keep It Short & Simple. Focus on price action, understanding that everything else is secondary. Go ahead and build complex technical indicators but keep in mind their primary function is to confirm or refute what your trained eye already sees. Always remember the founding pillar of technical analysis is price action discounts everything.

16) Losses are your tuition fees- Trading is one of the few professions where losing money every day is a natural path to success. Every trading loss comes with an important market lesson, if you’re open to the message.  

CONCLUSION

The vast majority of traders fail to tap their full potential, eventually cashing in their chips and finding more traditional ways to make money. Become a proud member of the professional minority by following classic rules designed to keep a razor sharp focus on profitability.

Tuesday 7 April 2015

RULES YOU SHOULD FOLLOW IF YOU WANT TO BE A SUCCESSFUL TRADER-PART I

Making regular profits in stock market is harder than it looks at first glance. You will be surprised to know that more than 80 percent of all participants finally wash out and take up safer carrier options. Only 10 percent of the traders are able to earn money and reached the break even and only 3 percent of all traders actually make handsome profits.
Long-term profitability requires two interrelated skill sets. First, we need strategies that make more money than they lose. Second, those strategies must perform well while the market shape shifts through bull and bear impulses, with plenty of choppy periods in between. While many traders know how to make money in specific market conditions, like a strong uptrend, they fail in the long run because their strategies don't adapt to inevitable changes.
These are the some rules which are remembered by the winners of the game.

1) DISCIPLINE -  You cannot learn discipline in seminars or from expensive trading softwares. Traders spend lakhs of rupees trying to compensate for their lack of self-control but few realize that a long look in the mirror  accomplishes the same task at a much cheaper price. You have to follow your own set of rules and have control over your emotions.

2) CROWD-  Long term profitability requires positioning ahead of or behind the crowd, but never in the crowd because that’s where predatory strategies target. Stay away from media noises, stock boards and chat rooms. This is serious business and everyone in those places has an ulterior motive.


3) TRADING PLAN- You should have a trading plan. It should be properly documented and not a mental note. Update your trading plan weekly or monthly to include new ideas and eliminate bad ones. Go back and read the plan whenever you fall in a hole and are looking for a way to get out.

4) DON'T CUT CORNERS- Your competition spends hundreds of hours perfecting strategies and you’re in for a rude awakening if you expect to throw a few darts and walk away with a profit. It’s even worse if you cut corners in the rest of your life because that bad habit is much tougher to break.

5) AVOID THE OBVIOUS- Profit rarely follows the majority. When you see a perfect trade setup, it’s likely that everyone else sees it as well, planting you in the crowd and setting you up for failure.

6) FOLLOW YOUR TRADING RULES- You create trading rules to get you out of trouble when positions go badly. If you don’t allow them to do their job, you’ve lost your discipline and opened the door to even greater losses.

7) AVOID MARKET GURUS- It’s your money at stake, not theirs. Keep in mind that they're probably talking up their positionshoping the excited chatter will increase their profits, not yours. If you want to successful you should have belief in yourself, your trading plans and skills.

8) INTUITION- Trading uses the mathematical and artistic sides of your brain so you need to cultivate both to succeed in the long run. Once you're comfortable with math, you can enhance results with meditation, a few yoga postures or a quiet walk in the park. Learn to develop your intuition and follow it too.

To be continued..   

THE BEGINNING OF MY BLOG

Hie All,
I am a technical analyst and a day trader. I just created this blog, the purpose is to share my experiences and trading days which are not less than a thriller blockbuster, just like any other stock speculator. The field of technical analysis and stock trading is vast as ocean. There are large number of participants who have different outlook for the market and using different tools and techniques in pursue of making money in this game. I personally like moving averages together with RSI and candle stick patterns. 
I will try to share my experience, little knowledge which I possess and also some calls for stock, stock futures, nifty and nifty futures.
Lets begin this journey, we will learn from each other experience and expertise.
Thank you.
See you soon.
HAPPY TRADING :)